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The growth in workload for Britain's builders may have peaked reports the Federation of Master Builders state of trade survey for the 4th quarter of 2000. Overall, 46% of builders surveyed reported a rise in workload. However, only 6% expect a further increase over the first quarter of 2001 with some regions expecting a levelling off or downturn in orders.
The increase in workloads is most marked in Wales which reports a 71% increase in orders. However, this is set against a 56% fall in orders for the region during the third quarter of last year. East Anglia has experienced a marked fall in orders of 20% and builders there expect a further fall in orders during the first part of 2001. After periods of growth, the North and North West expect a downturn in the next quarter while the growth of building work in the South East, South West and West Midlands is expected to markedly slow down. Builders are more optimistic in London, Yorkshire and Humberside and the East Midlands where an average of 15% expect workloads to continue to rise.
The rise in workloads has continued to be led by the repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) of private dwellings. The RMI of social housing has shown a marked increase of 17% over the last quarter with similar increases reported for commercial work and the repair and maintenance and private, non-residential buildings. However, over the next quarter on RMI for social housing is expected to rise by only 5%. All other sectors of work are forecast to fall. New house building is expected to fall by 12%, private RMI by 2%, new social housing by 22%, industrial by 17% and commercial by 3%.
The prospective slowdown in workloads has eased the difficulties in obtaining bricklayers, plasterers, plumbers and electricians. However, some 32% builders still report problems in recruiting carpenters and joiners.
Of the survey results, Ian Davis, Director General of the Federation of Master Builders said:
"For most of 2000 there was a marked increase in workloads. This may now have peaked with reports of a slow down in orders or even a downturn in some regions. One possible reason for the significant rise in workloads during the last quarter was amount of repair work on flood-damaged properties. However, many builders are reporting delays in obtaining in payment for work arising from insurance claims."
The buoyancy in the industry has led to many to building firms being set-up.
"The number of new start-up is a welcomed indication of the positive order book for the building industry and the FMB is there is to help these new businesses mature," said Mr Davis. However he warmed: "These new firms may be particularly vulnerable to a drop in orders and we will be watching the next quarter results to see if the forecasted slowdown is seasonal or whether a peak in workloads has been reached."
First posted: 18 January 2001. Last modified: 18 January 2001.
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