Employment Trends Employment in the First Quarter of 2002 Answers to the question on the change in survey respondents' workforces in the first quarter of 2002 point to a small increase in total employment, whereas three months earlier those who took part in the fourth quarter 2001 survey had anticipated a slight fall. Amongst the builders taking part in the survey, the proportion reporting employment higher than in the previous quarter, 22%, is a little under half that saying that workload has increased. Amongst the specialist contractors, by comparison, the 30% 'higher' proportion for the change in workforce is only three points less than that indicating a rise in workload. As shown in Table 7 below, the result for this question for the UK as a whole masks quite a variety of results by region. For the East Midlands, where only just over a quarter report a rise in workload, over half indicate an increase in employment. At the other extreme, in the West Midlands the 'higher' proportion for the change in workload is 45%, but only 13% say their workforce is higher. With 18% saying it is lower, this is one of four of the nine English regions for which the balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies is negative, indicating some contraction of the workforce - with the most pronounced negative balance for employment being that for East Anglia from where there are signs of a clear increase in workload - and there is also a negative balance of replies from respondents in Northern Ireland.
Table 7 - Change in Employment in the Last Quarter   2001 First Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted Percentage   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Higher Same Lower Balance North +21 +21 -16 +20 10 77 13 -3 Yorks & Humber -6 +5 -1 +25 30 54 16 +14 East Midlands +27 -14 +44 -15 56 44 0 +56 East Anglia +11 +26 +29 +6 23 39 38 -15 London 0 +42 0 +11 20 61 19 +1 South East +5 -5 +2 -3 24 55 21 +3 South West +8 -2 0 -3 21 56 23 -2 West Midlands +7 +17 0 0 13 69 18 -5 North West +16 +48 +23 -26 34 37 29 +5 Wales +34 +42 +21 +36 22 70 8 +14 Scotland -14 +27 +37 -30 23 57 20 +3 N Ireland -54 +6 +35 4 45 51 -47 All builders +9 +14 +9 +2 22 59 19 +3 All specialists +6 +22 +4 -7 30 45 25 +5 UK +9 +16 +9 +1 23 57 20 +3
It should be added that replies last time to the question about expected changes in employment in the coming quarter were also quite varied by region. For most regions there is not that great a difference between the out-turn balance and the balance of expectations expressed three months ago but, as may be seen by comparing Table 7 above and Table 8 below, there is a very big difference in the results for East Anglia, and quite large ones in those for London and Wales. Expected Employment in the Second Quarter of 2002 Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2002, nearly three out of ten of all respondents to the FMB survey anticipate expanding their workforces, whereas fewer than one in ten expect to shed jobs. The +21 weighted percentage balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies for the UK as a whole is the same as in the first quarter 2001 survey, and higher than those in all the intervening surveys. In terms of the weighted percentage balance of replies, results are broadly similar for the builders and the specialist contractors taking part in this survey, but among the specialists three quarters expect the level of employment to remain the same, compared with just under two thirds of the builders.
Table 8 - Expected Change in Employment in the Next Quarter   2001 First Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted Percentage   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Higher Same Lower Balance North +16 -4 -8 +1 21 53 26 -5 Yorks & Humber +13 +15 0 -8 31 69 0 +31 East Midlands -5 +12 +5 -24 49 51 0 +49 East Anglia +4 +37 -17 -15 20 76 4 +16 London +27 +27 -12 +28 26 65 9 +17 South East +37 +11 +13 -3 25 69 6 +19 South West +22 -13 +17 -1 26 69 5 +21 West Midlands +19 +29 +24 -16 30 66 4 +26 North West +28 +47 -12 -10 18 69 13 +5 Wales +20 +58 +8 +14 25 63 12 +13 Scotland +25 +39 +27 +17 27 53 20 +7 N Ireland -49 +59 +17 44 56 0 +44 All builders +18 +19 +9 -1 29 63 8 +21 All specialists +31 +18 -2 -6 21 75 4 +17 UK +21 +19 +7 -3 28 65 7 +21
By region the strongest expectation of a rise in employment comes from the East Midlands, which also has one of the strongest expectations of a further increase in workload in the second quarter. Almost half of the respondents from this region anticipate taking on more people in the coming three months. At the other end of the scale the weakest result is that for the North, despite survey respondents in that region looking forward to some increase in their workload in the April-June quarter. The North shows by far the largest proportion of respondents expecting to shed jobs. In only three other regions, but also in the Bedfordshire/Essex/Hertfordshire segment of the South East, is the 'lower' percentage in double figures, whilst there are three in which no firm anticipates reducing its workforce. Further Information For further information, please contact: Federation of Master Builders Gordon Fisher House 14-15 Great James Street Holborn London WC1N 3DP Tel: 020 7242 7583 Fax: 020 7404 0296
First posted: 25 June 2002. Last modified: 26 June 2002.