1st Quarter 2002 - Workload Trends Workload in the First Quarter of 2002 Answers having been weighted by size of firm, 44% of all respondents report that their total workload was higher in the first quarter of 2002 than in the final three months of 2001, whilst 21% indicate a downturn in work. Comparison of these figures produces a weighted percentage balance of +23, which is ten points higher than that recorded by the fourth quarter 2001 survey, and just three points less than the result for the first quarter of last year. This is the eleventh survey in succession that has produced a positive result from this question. Table 1 below shows that the result for all builders taking part in the survey is much stronger than that for all specialist contractors, as it was in the fourth quarter 2001 survey. Table 3 recalls that, three months ago, the expectations of the specialists for the trend in workload in the first quarter of 2002 were much weaker than those of the builders, but at that time even the builders were anticipating at best a levelling of the trend in workload, and the specialists were looking forward to a marked downturn. It is not unusual for there to be some seasonal reduction in the volume of building work in the January-March quarter. For the third year running, however, the small and medium-sized building firms taking part in the FMB survey are indicating a better-than-expected trend in this quarter.
Table 1 - Change in Total Construction in the Last Quarter   2001 First Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Higher Same Lower Balance North +35 0 -15 +31 25 29 46 -21 Yorks & Humber +13 +23 +27 +6 52 29 19 +33 East Midlands +60 +32 +69 0 26 66 8 +18 East Anglia +1 +36 +44 +33 41 42 17 +24 London +12 +60 +2 +10 43 27 30 +13 South East +49 +35 +36 -8 39 33 28 +11 South West +18 +19 +27 +19 45 39 16 +29 West Midlands +31 +57 +60 +15 45 37 18 +27 North West +9 +55 +48 +32 46 31 23 +23 Wales +54 +29 -26 +27 57 23 20 +37 Scotland +27 +22 +90 -5 59 34 7 +52 N Ireland -73 +88 -35 36 51 13 +23 All builders +24 +36 +35 +15 46 34 20 +26 All specialists +35 +44 +33 +8 33 40 27 +6 UK +26 +39 +35 +13 44 35 21 +23
Table 1shows that for most regions the result was relatively close to the national one. The principal exceptions are the North, which is the only region in which the survey finds indications of a downturn in work, and Scotland and Wales which both display results more than ten points better than that for the UK as a whole. The North and the East Midlands are the regions with the lowest proportions reporting a rise in work, but the balance for the latter of these regions is clearly positive as it also shows one of the lowest 'lower' figures. Results are relatively modest both for respondents working principally in Greater London, and those in the rest of the South East, with these two regions showing the largest 'lower' proportions for the change in workload after the North. If replies from firms in the South East but outside London are split between the three segments for which there are separate construction data from the DTI (i.e. Bedfordshire, Essex and Hertfordshire; Kent, Surrey and Sussex; and Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire), one finds that the comparatively weak result for this region as a whole is attributable to a negative one for firms operating mainly in the Kent, Surrey and Sussex segment, whilst those for the other two segments are both ahead of the national result.
Table 2 - Change in Construction Workload by Type of Work   2001 First Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Higher Same Lower Balance Housing:                 Private new 0 +18 +27 +1 29 53 18 +11 Private RM&I +14 +30 +24 +11 33 54 13 +20 Social new -17 -3 -3 +18 15 64 21 -6 Social RM&I +7 +19 -1 -2 23 53 24 -1 Non-Residential:                 Public new build +3 +3 +10 +8 32 45 23 +9 Public R&M +15 +15 +8 +8 15 61 24 -9 Industrial +17 +1 -3 +2 23 48 29 -6 Commercial +13 +10 +9 0 30 43 27 +3 Private R&M +20 +13 +19 +4 24 58 18 +6
Table 2 shows that, by type of work, the strongest result is that for repair, maintenance and improvement of existing private housing stock, which had showed up as the most buoyant sector in the first three of the FMB's four surveys in 2001. Exactly a third of those reporting work in this sector indicate an increase compared with the October-December quarter. The result for private housing new build is also clearly positive, and there are small positive balances of 'higher' and 'lower' replies for two of the three divisions of work on non-residential buildings for private sector clients, the exception being work on industrial buildings. Where work for public sector clients and housing associations is concerned, by comparison, three of the four results are negative this time, the only positive one being that for new build and refurbishment of non-residential buildings such as schools and National Health Service facilities. Expected Workload in the Second Quarter of 2002 Expectations of the trend in survey respondents' total workload in the second quarter of 2002 are only a little less strongly positive than they were at the same point in 2001. Almost half of all respondents expect a further increase in their workload, whilst only 15% anticipate a downturn. Looking forward to the next quarter rather than back to the last one, the result is stronger for specialist contractors than for builders, by a clear margin.
Table 3 - Expected Changes in Workload in the Next Quarter   2001 First Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Higher Same Lower Balance North +52 -10 -24 -11 41 31 28 +13 Yorks & Humber +19 +12 -4 -19 58 34 8 +50 East Midlands +13 +3 +10 -42 55 39 6 +49 East Anglia +41 +66 +21 -17 38 48 14 +24 London +18 +18 +15 +9 43 46 11 +32 South East +52 +22 0 -20 47 41 12 +35 South West +22 +18 +3 +12 61 29 10 +51 West Midlands +33 +23 +3 -10 30 55 15 +15 North West +42 +65 0 -19 29 51 20 +9 Wales +56 +59 -19 +9 47 27 26 +21 Scotland +20 +30 +18 -8 30 38 32 -2 N Ireland +18 +6 -35 58 20 22 +36 All builders +31 +25 +10 -1 44 40 16 +28 All specialists +56 +38 -17 -37 54 37 9 +45 UK +37 +27 +5 -9 46 39 15 +31
Only in Scotland is it not expected that there will be a rise in workload in the second quarter, whilst among the English regions there are comparatively weak results for the North West, North, and West Midlands. In three English regions, and in Northern Ireland, more than half expect their workload to rise in the next three months, and in two of those English Regions, Yorkshire & the Humber and the East Midlands, fewer than one in ten anticipate a fall. For this question results for both London and the rest of the South East are relatively stronger than they are in respect of the change in workload in the last quarter, both being a little ahead of the result for the whole of the UK. In the rest of the South East firms operating principally in Bedfordshire, Essex and Hertfordshire have somewhat weaker expectations than those of firms in the other two segments of the region, not because fewer expect a rise in workload in the second quarter, but because more anticipate a fall. Indeed, for that segment of the South East the 'lower' proportion of replies to this question is as high as that in the North of England.
Table 4 - Expected Changes in Workload, by Type of Work   2001 First Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Higher Same Lower Balance Housing:                 Private new +23 +15 -3 -10 29 57 14 +15 Private RM&I +21 +19 +16 -4 30 59 11 +19 Social new +14 +1 -28 -15 17 73 10 +7 Social RM&I +6 +7 -2 -12 22 64 14 +8 Non-Residential:                 Public new build +20 +3 -7 +3 31 54 15 +16 Public R&M +15 +9 -1 -6 22 62 16 +6 Industrial +9 +9 +1 -5 23 60 17 +6 Commercial +23 +6 +9 -8 32 54 14 +18 Private R&M +10 +5 -11 -8 21 64 15 +6
Table 4 shows that, as was the case in the first in the first two surveys last year but not in the latter two, FMB survey respondents are looking forward to an increase in all types of work. The strongest result is that for private housing RM&I, but at +19 it only just ahead of those for new private housing, commercial work, and new build and refurbishment of public non-residential buildings.
Further Information For further information, please contact: Federation of Master Builders Gordon Fisher House 14-15 Great James Street Holborn London WC1N 3DP Tel: 020 7242 7583 Fax: 020 7404 0296 First posted: 25 June 2002. Last modified: 25 June 2002.