Workload

The percentage of firms reporting increased workloads this quarter, has remained the same at 20 per cent as in the previous and corresponding quarter of 1997. Those reporting falling workloads has marginally increased on the last quarter, but remains below the level reported in the first quarter of 1997, (Table 1).

Table 1 Percentage of firms reporting increased and decreased workload, 1988-1998
	Increase	Same	Decrease
1988	25	57	18
1989	15	58	27
1990	10	40	50
1991	7.5	39	53.5
1992	10	41	49
1993	16	52	32
1994
Q1	17	56	27
Q2	22	55	23
Q3	18	55	27
Q4	18	55	27
1995
Q1	15	60	25
Q2	13	62	25
Q3	16	56	28
Q4	14	53	33
1996
Q1	14	53	33
Q2	16	58	26
Q3	15	62	23
Q4	-	-	-
1997
Q1	20	54	26
Q2	22	56	22
Q3	26	59	15
Q4	20	64	16
1998
Q1	20	59	22

The percentage balance between increased and decreased workload has returned to being negative for the first time since the first quarter of 1997, signifying that the overall industry is now experiencing a small downturn. However, compared to the same period of 1997, the decline is at a slower pace, (Table 2).

Workloads in the private sector remain static at this time, whilst signifying a downturn over the last three months, workload levels are still above the first quarter of 1997 levels. Growth in the private repair and maintenance market continues to be recorded, in the housing repair and maintenance sector this growth has slowed, but in non-housing repair and maintenance, growth is greater. All other categories of private work are in negative balance and show increased decline compared to the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter of 1997, (Table 2).

The rate of decline in the public sector continues to rise, output balance now stands at -6 per cent compared to the previous surveys findings of -4 per cent and the corresponding quarter of 1997, -5 per cent. All categories of public work, with the exception of non -housing repair and maintenance, are declining at an increased rate compared to the previous quarter and the first quarter of 1997, this indicates that even accounting for seasonal adjustment, the industry's public sector workload is experiencing a greater downturn this period than in the same period in 1997, (Table 2).

Table 2 Percentage balance between increased and decreased workload by category of work, 1995-1997
	1995				1996				1997				1998
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1
New Housing
Private	-16	-12	-14	-25	-26	-12	-5	-	-4	-4	+11	+8	-1
Public	-19	-19	-23	-37	-36	-29	-15	-	-15	-10	-8	-16	-15
Other New Work
Private industrial	-8	-16	-22	-12	-19	-14	-16	-	-4	-11	+6	+5	-6
Private commercial	-11	-9	-14	-21	-17	-9	-4	-	-1	+1	+9	+4	-7
Public	-12	-14	-18	-20	-18	-14	-13	-	-2	-2	+14	-2	-6
Repair & Maintenance
Private housing	-9	-5	-13	-12	-21	+4	+1	-	-3	+16	+25	+16	+2
Public housing	-6	-19	-9	-22	-18	-19	-14	-	-2	-6	+17	+4	-4
Private non-housing	-5	-12	-7	-19	-13	-6	-15	-	-14	+10	+11	+2	+5
Public non-housing	-12	-9	-3	-25	-14	-18	-11	-	-4	-16	-4	-4	+/-0
TOTAL PRIVATE	-9	-9	-13	-17	-20	-6	-6	-	-5	+6	+14	+8	+/-0
TOTAL PUBLIC	-12	-15	-11	-24	-21	-19	-13	-	-5	-8	+6	-4	-6
ALL WORK	-10	-12	-12	-19	-19	-10	-8	-	-6	0	+11	+4	-2

Firms carrying out new housing work, have reported an increase in the rate of decline. Private sector new housing workloads have returned to a negative balance, however the rate of decline is not as high as in the first quarter of 1997. Firms doing public work in the housing sector have reported a marginal fall in the rate of decline this quarter. A significant fall in workloads in other new work (excluding housing) has also been recorded, output balance now stands at -6 per cent compared to +3 per cent in the fourth quarter 1997 and -2 per cent in the first quarter 1997, (Table 3).

Output balance in the repair and maintenance sector remains positive, but growth is slowing, workload levels are significantly better than in the same period of 1997. Public housing repair and maintenance work has returned to a negative output balance. Growth has increased in private non-housing repair and maintenance, (Table 3).

Table 3 Percentage of firms reporting increased and decreased workload by sector, 1Q 1998
	3rd Q '96	2nd Quarter 1997				3rd Quarter 1997
	% Bal	Inc	Same	Dec	% Bal	Inc	Same	Dec	% Bal
New Housing
Private	-4	21	66	13	+8	21	57	22	-1
Public	-15	4	76	20	-16	8	69	23	-15
Total	-8	15	70	15	-1	16	62	22	-6
Other New Work
Private Industrial	-4	19	67	14	+5	21	52	27	-6
Private Commercial	-1	18	69	13	+4	17	59	24	-7
Public	-2	17	64	19	-2	16	62	22	-6
Total	-2	18	67	15	+3	18	58	24	-6
Repair & Maintenance
Private Housing	-3	30	56	14	+16	23	56	21	+2
Public Housing	-2	19	66	15	+4	17	61	21	-4
Private Non-Housing	-14	21	60	19	+2	24	57	19	-5
Public Non-Housing	-5	15	66	19	-4	20	59	20	+/-0
Total	-6	23	61	16	+6	22	58	20	+2

Reports from Regions

Members in the South Wales region are reporting the highest rate of decline in workload levels, output balance stands at -12 per cent. Only three regions, North West, Yorkshire and Trent and London, have shown a growth in workload over the past three months, in the former there has been a swing from -22% recorded in the previous quarter to +6 per cent. Over the year the greatest improvement has been in the London region, where output balance was -26 per cent in the first quarter of 1997 and is now +4 per cent, (Table 4)

Table 4 Percentage of firms reporting increased and decreased workload by region, 1Q 1998
	1stQ 97	Fourth Quarter 1997				First Quarter 1998
	%	Inc	Same	Dec	%	Inc	Same	Dec	%
Northern	-5	13	67	19	-6	14	65	21	-7
North West	-5	14	50	36	-22	24	58	18	+6
Yorkshire & Trent	-15	16	71	13	+3	25	56	18	+7
Midland	-13	21	59	19	+2	16	62	22	-6
Eastern	+/-0	25	66	9	+16	23	54	24	+4
London	-26	27	55	18	+9	26	51	22	+4
Southern	+3	21	67	12	+9	22	51	27	-5
South West	+5	21	68	11	+10	17	64	20	-3
South Wales	+23	-	-	-	-	12	63	24	-12

First posted: 11 January 1999. Last modified: 27 July 1999.