Employment Trends

2. Expected Employment in the Second Quarter of 1999

As for the change in employment anticipated in the second quarter of 1999, here also the overall result is closely comparable with that for expected workload, as are most of the regional balances when compared with those for workload in Table 4.

Table 8 - Expected Change in Employment in the Current Quarter

	1998 results				1999 Q1
	% balance, not weighted				Weighted percentages
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Higher	Same	Lower	Balance
Northern	+11-7	-6	+8	+11	48	50	2	+46
North West	+15-3	+6	+9	0	7	69	24	-17
Yorkshire & Trent	0	+3	-4	-3	39	59	2	+37
Midlands	+14	+5	+4	-11	6	67	27	-21
Eastern	-3	+15	0	-9	20	73	7	+13
London	+3	+12	+10	+4	38	49	13	+25
Southern	+3	+4	-7	-3	31	63	6	+25
South West	+8	+8	+7	+7	10	85	5	+5
South Wales	+19	-6	+13	-25	14	52	34	-20
All builders					25	67	8	+17
All specialists					19	55	26	-7
National	+7	+6	+2	-2	23	65	12	+11

The exceptions in this case are in the Midlands, South West and South Wales, where the employment balances are clearly weaker than those for anticipated workload; and the Northern Counties where a much stronger increase is expected in employment. As far as the last of these regions is concerned, however, it should be added that there is almost the same percentage looking forward to increased workload and to increased employment, but a very much lower percentage looking forward to employing fewer people than anticipate having less work.

Almost more pronounced than any of the differences between regions is that between the builders and the specialist contractors. It may be recalled that their expectations in respect of the trend in workload were relatively very similar, but their employment expectations are quite different, with the specialist contractors anticipating a fall in employment in the present quarter.

First posted: 1 April 1999. Last modified: 27 July 1999.