Workload Trends
2. Expected Workload in the Second Quarter of 1999
Looking ahead, respondents are relatively confident that the second quarter will bring an upturn in their total workload. However, this is what is to be expected at the end of the first quarter, and looking forward to longer days and a seasonal upturn in the housing market around Easter (there is no seasonal adjustment of the survey results, but this will be introduced as soon as practicable). The crucial question is whether the up-turn this time appears at all stronger or weaker than in previous years.
At the same stage in 1998 the national balance of unweighted percentages of replies expecting total workload to rise or to fall in the quarter ahead was only +2. Now the balance of weighted percentages is apparently stronger at +14. However, when results are compared sector by sector, the impression of a slightly better situation is not so strong. The balances for all housing sectors are relatively little different from a year ago, again showing an expectation of an increase in private sector work but a further decline in social housing new build and RM&I. By comparison, the balances for the non-residential building sectors are all weaker.
Table 3 - Expected Changes in Workload, Current Quarter, by Sector
| |
1998 results |
1999 Q1 |
| |
% balance, not weighted |
Weighted percentages |
| |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Higher |
Same |
Lower |
Balance |
| Housing: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Private new |
+12 |
+9 |
-12 |
-22 |
32 |
51 |
17 |
+15 |
Private RM&I |
+9 |
+13 |
+3 |
-8 |
23 |
63 |
14 |
+9 |
Social new |
-20 |
-9 |
-26 |
-27 |
9 |
61 |
30 |
-21 |
Social RM&I |
-7 |
-6 |
-12 |
-21 |
15 |
62 |
23 |
-8 |
| Non-residential: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public new build |
-6 |
-1 |
-9 |
-23 |
16 |
56 |
28 |
-12 |
Public R&M |
+5 |
-5 |
-13 |
-17 |
21 |
52 |
27 |
-6 |
Private industrial |
-1 |
-12 |
-26 |
-23 |
16 |
57 |
27 |
-11 |
Private commercial |
-1 |
-2 |
-20 |
-19 |
22 |
53 |
25 |
-3 |
Private R&M |
+9 |
+1 |
-5 |
-22 |
23 |
52 |
25 |
-2 |
With this question also there are some quite substantial variations in the expectations of FMB members in different regions. Judging by the balances, confidence in an improvement in workload in the second quarter is relatively strongest in Yorkshire and Trent, then in London, the Southern Counties and the South West. The Northern Counties have the second highest percentage expecting an improvement in workload, but also show one of the highest percentages anticipating a decline, so this region's percentage balance is only a modest +12.
Table 4 - Expected Changes in Construction Workload by Region and Trade
| |
|
Weighted percentages |
|
| |
|
Higher |
Same |
Lower |
Balance |
|
| |
Northern |
47 |
18 |
35 |
+12 |
|
| |
North West |
20 |
40 |
40 |
-20 |
|
| |
Yorkshire & Trent |
44 |
49 |
7 |
+37 |
|
| |
Midlands |
29 |
29 |
42 |
-13 |
|
| |
Eastern |
31 |
54 |
15 |
+16 |
|
| |
London |
41 |
49 |
10 |
+30 |
|
| |
Southern |
50 |
30 |
20 |
+30 |
|
| |
South West |
40 |
43 |
17 |
+23 |
|
| |
South Wales |
30 |
34 |
36 |
-6 |
|
| |
All builders |
37 |
41 |
22 |
+15 |
|
| |
All specialists |
39 |
35 |
26 |
+13 |
|
| |
National |
37 |
40 |
23 |
+14 |
|
At the other extreme, confidence is still low in South Wales, and quite severely depressed in the Midlands, both of which regions reported a fall in output in the first quarter. By comparison, respondents in the North West, including North Wales, who showed one of the higher percentages reporting workload up in the January-March quarter, now have the lowest percentage expecting an increase in the second quarter, and the weakest balance of answers to this question of any region.
When looking ahead over the second quarter the results are similar for builders and specialist contractors.
First posted: 1 April 1999. Last modified: 27 July 1999.
