2nd Quarter 2002 - Workload Trends Workload in the second quarter of 2002 For the twelfth quarter in succession the FMB's survey of its members' state of trade finds evidence of an increase in their total workload over the past quarter. As shown in Table 1, across the UK as a whole just under a third of all respondents report an increase in their workload in the second quarter of 2002, whereas a fifth indicate a decrease. The 'lower' proportion is the same as last time, but the 'higher' one is 12 percentage points less than in the first quarter survey, so the weighted percentage balance of replies is cut to a relatively modest +11. Table 1 shows relatively little difference in the results this time for the builders and specialist contractors taking part in the survey, but there are some quite substantial variations by region, some of which are quite different from those recorded by the first quarter survey, including the swing from a clear positive to a negative result for North West England. This is one of three English regions in which the proportion of 'lower' replies is a quarter or more, and ahead of the 'higher' proportion, the others being Greater London and the rest of the South East. By comparison, the strongest results are those for the East Midlands and Eastern regions, both of which had reported slower growth in the previous two surveys.
Table 1 - Change in Total Construction in the Last Quarter   2001 2002 Second Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Wtd % bal Weighted percentage   Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Higher Same Lower Balance North East 0 -15 +31 -21 25 56 19 +6 Yorks & Humber +23 +27 +6 +33 29 54 17 +12 East Midlands +32 +69 0 +18 54 32 14 +40 Eastern +34 +50 +14 +24 59 32 9 +50 London +60 +2 +10 +13 19 56 25 -6 South East +36 +31 -2 +7 23 43 34 -11 South West +19 +27 +19 +29 38 44 18 +20 West Midlands +57 +60 +15 +27 41 43 16 +25 North West +55 +48 +32 +23 23 48 29 -6 Wales +29 -26 +27 +37 18 77 5 +13 Scotland +22 +90 -5 +52 40 35 25 +15 Northern Ireland +88 -35 +23 0 98 2 -2 All builders +36 +35 +15 +26 32 47 21 +11 All specialists +44 +33 +8 +6 30 50 20 +10 UK +39 +35 +13 +23 32 47 21 +11
Overall, and for most regions, the trend in workload appears somewhat slower than was anticipated last time. This is mainly on account of fewer firms reporting increased workload than were looking forward to further growth at the time of the first quarter survey, rather than the outturn 'lower' proportion being greater than was expected. Note that the slowdown in the North West was at least partially anticipated, but that now reported from London and the South East was not. There are some indications, in answers to other questions, that the poor results from the latter two regions are attributable in part to a further tightening of the labour market.
Table 2 - Change in Construction Workload by Type of Work   2001 2002 Second Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Wtd % bal Weighted percentage   Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Higher Same Lower Balance Housing:                 Private new +18 +27 +1 +11 29 57 14 +15 Private RM&I +30 +24 +11 +20 24 65 11 +13 Social new -3 -3 +18 -6 18 61 21 -3 Social RM&I +19 -1 -2 -1 16 60 24 -8 Non-Residential:                 Public new build +3 +10 +8 +9 16 55 29 -13 Public R&M +15 +8 +8 -9 8 66 26 -18 Industrial +1 -3 +2 -6 27 52 21 +6 Commercial +10 +9 0 +3 24 56 20 +4 Private R&M +13 +19 +4 +6 18 64 18 0
By type of work there is again a contrast between the results for work for private and for public sector clients, which is disappointing given that three months earlier FMB survey respondents were looking forward to growth in all types of work. The strongest result this time is that for private housing new build, slightly ahead of that for repair, maintenance and improvement of the existing stock of private housing. For these two sectors outturn results are broadly in line with the expectations expressed last time, as is that for new construction of and improvements to industrial buildings. For commercial work, however, and especially for repair and maintenance of non-residential buildings for private sector clients, together with all types of work for public sector clients, the results are clearly weaker than expected. Expected Workload in the Third Quarter of 2002 Looking ahead into the third quarter, there is still a relatively strong expectation of a further rise in the workload of small and medium-sized building firms and specialist contractors. The proportion expecting total workload to rise is just four percentage points lower than it was in the first quarter 2002 FMB survey, whilst that anticipating a fall is one point lower. The overall weighted percentage balance of 'higher' and 'lower' percentages of replies is therefore is only three points less than last time. The result for specialist contractors is somewhat stronger than that for builders, as it was in the first quarter.
Table 3 - Expected Changes in Workload in the Next Quarter   2001 2002 Second Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Wtd % bal Weighted percentage   Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Higher Same Lower Balance North East -10 -24 -11 +13 59 22 19 +40 Yorks & Humber +12 -4 -19 +50 34 58 8 +26 East Midlands +3 +10 -42 +49 41 40 19 +22 Eastern +49 +7 -31 +22 41 35 24 +17 London +18 +15 +9 +32 43 43 14 +29 South East +30 +5 -5 +37 30 54 16 +14 South West +18 +3 +12 +51 44 41 15 +29 West Midlands +23 +3 -10 +15 27 53 20 +7 North West +65 0 -19 +9 42 51 7 +35 Wales +59 -19 +9 +21 57 43 0 +57 Scotland +30 +18 -8 -2 58 24 18 +40 Northern Ireland +6 -35 +36 34 62 4 +30 All builders +25 +10 -1 +28 41 44 15 +26 All specialists +38 -17 -37 +45 45 44 11 +34 UK +27 +5 -9 +31 42 44 14 +28
There are double-digit positive percentage balances of expectations of workload being higher or lower in the next quarter for all regions except the West Midlands. This is one of only three regions, the others being the South East of England and Northern Ireland, in which fewer than four out of ten respondents expect their total workload to rise in the third quarter. Compared with the overall figure of 14% anticipating a drop in work, the proportion is as high as 24% in Eastern England and 20% in West Midlands, but there is no survey respondent in Wales anticipating a drop in workload in the July-September quarter, and only single-figure percentages in Yorkshire and The Humber, the North West and - subject the reservations already stated regarding its low response rate in this survey - Northern Ireland.
Table 4 - Expected Changes in Workload, by Type of Work   2001 2002 Second Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Wtd % bal Weighted percentage   Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Higher Same Lower Balance Housing:                 Private new +15 -3 -10 +15 30 53 17 +13 Private RM&I +19 +16 -4 +19 20 68 12 +8 Social new +1 -28 -15 +7 10 63 27 -17 Social RM&I +7 -2 -12 +8 21 59 20 +1 Non-Residential:                 Public new build +3 -7 +3 +16 25 52 23 +2 Public R&M +9 -1 -6 +6 18 68 14 +4 Industrial +9 +1 -5 +6 14 71 15 -1 Commercial +6 +9 -8 +18 21 64 15 +6 Private R&M +5 -11 -8 +6 25 57 18 +7
More so than in the first quarter survey, expectations are stronger in respect of most types of work for private sector clients, except industrial building work, than they are for public sector work. The weakest result is that for new construction of social housing, in respect of which only one in ten firms anticipates an increase in work, whereas over a quarter expect a decline.
Further Information For further information, please contact: Federation of Master Builders Gordon Fisher House 14-15 Great James Street Holborn London WC1N 3DP Tel: 020 7242 7583 Fax: 020 7404 0296 First posted: 14 August 2002. Last modified: 15 August 2002.