Workload

The percentage of firms reporting increased workloads this quarter has fallen marginally compared to the corresponding quarter in 1997 and the first quarter of 1998. The percentage of those reporting declining workload levels has risen against both the second quarter of 1997 and the previous quarter's findings, (Table 1).

Table 1
Percentage of firms reporting increased and decreased workload, 1988-1998.

Workload
	Increase	Same	Decrease
1988	25	57	18
1989	15	58	27
1990	10	40	50
1991	7.5	39	53.5
1992	10	41	49
1993	16	52	32
1994
Q1	17	56	27
Q2	22	55	23
Q3	18	55	27
Q4	18	55	27
1995
Q1	15	60	25
Q2	13	62	25
Q3	16	56	28
Q4	14	53	33
1996
Q1	14	53	33
Q2	16	58	26
Q3	15	62	23
Q4	-	-	-
1997
Q1	20	54	26
Q2	22	56	22
Q3	26	59	15
Q4	20	64	16
1998
Q1	20	59	22
Q2	19	58	23

The rate at which workload overall in the industry is declining has increased, a percentage balance of -4 is now being recorded compared to -2 in the first quarter of 1998 and +/-0 in the second quarter of 1997, (Table 2).

Private sector workload has increased this quarter due only to a significant growth in the private housing repair and maintenance market. All other categories of private work are in negative balance. Compared to the same period one year earlier, all categories except private new housing and private housing repair and maintenance are showing declining states of trade, (Table 2).

The rate of decline in the public sector has increased for the third consecutive quarter and is above the level of the corresponding quarter of 1997. All categories of this sector are declining at increased rates compared to the previous quarter and to the second quarter of 1997, (Table 2).

Table 2
Percentage balance between increased and decreased workload by category of work, 1995-1998.

	1995				1996				1997				1998
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2
New Housing
Private	-16	-12	-14	-25	-26	-12	-5	-	-4	-4	+11	+8	-1	-1
Public	-19	-19	-23	-37	-36	-29	-15	-	-15	-10	-8	-16	-15	-26
Other New Work
Private industrial	-8	-16	-22	-12	-19	-14	-16	-	-4	-11	+6	+5	-6	-14
Private commercial	-11	-9	-14	-21	-17	-9	-4	-	-1	+1	+9	+4	-7	-11
Public	-12	-14	-18	-20	-18	-14	-13	-	-2	-2	+14	-2	-6	-8
Repair & Maintenance
Private housing	-9	-5	-13	-12	-21	+4	+1	-	-3	+16	+25	+16	+2	+21
Public housing	-6	-19	-9	-22	-18	-19	-14	-	-2	-6	+17	+4	-4	-10
Private non-housing	-5	-12	-7	-19	-13	-6	-15	-	-14	+10	+11	+2	+5	-7
Public non-housing	-12	-9	-3	-25	-14	-18	-11	-	-4	-16	-4	-4	+/-0	-17
TOTAL PRIVATE	-9	-9	-13	-17	-20	-6	-6	-	-5	+6	+14	+8	+/-0	+2
TOTAL PUBLIC	-12	-15	-11	-24	-21	-19	-13	-	-5	-8	+6	-4	-6	-14
ALL WORK	-10	-12	-12	-19	-19	-10	-8	-	-6	0	+11	+4	-2	-4

Firms undertaking new housing work have again reported an increase in the rate of decline. Private sector housing whilst showing an increased rate of decline compared to the previous quarter, has showed some improvement on the rate reported in the second quarter of 1997. A significant fall in workload has been recorded in public sector new housing, the percentage balance now stands at -26%. An increase in the rate of decline in other new work being carried out, has also been recorded, compared to both the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter of 1997, (Table 3).

Output balance in the repair and maintenance sector remains positive, but growth continues to slow. This is due to negative balances in all categories of the sector except private housing repair and maintenance, where growth is strong. A positive balance of 21% was recorded, (Table 3).

Table 3
Percentage of firms reporting increased and decreased workload by sector, second quarter, 1998.

	2nd Q '97	1st Quarter 1998				2nd Quarter 1998
	% Bal	Inc	Same	Dec	% Bal	Inc	Same	Dec	% Bal
New Housing
Private	-4	21	57	22	-1	19	61	20	-1
Public	-10	8	69	23	-15	8	58	34	-26
Total	-6	16	62	22	-6	15	60	25	-10
Other New Work
Private Industrial	-11	21	52	27	-6	14	59	28	-14
Private Commercial	+1	17	59	24	-7	16	57	27	-11
Public	-2	16	62	22	-6	20	53	28	-8
Total	-4	18	58	24	-6	17	56	27	-10
Repair & Maintenance
Private Housing	+16	23	56	21	+2	32	57	11	+21
Public Housing	-6	17	61	21	-4	14	62	24	-10
Private Non-Housing	+10	24	57	19	-5	18	57	25	-7
Public Non-Housing	-16	20	59	20	+/-0	12	60	29	-17
Total	+6	22	58	20	+2	21	68	20	+1

Reports From Regions

Members in Northern Counties and South Wales report significant decline in their workload levels this quarter. In the North West, Southern and South West regions, there has been a growth in workload where positive percentage balances have been recorded. The remainder of the regions are reporting negative balances and show increased rates of decline, (Table 4).

Table 4
Percentage of firms reporting increased and decreased workload by region, 1997 - 1998.

	2ndQ 97	1stQuarter 1998				2ndQuarter 1998
	%	Inc	Same	Dec	%	Inc	Same	Dec	%
Northern	+17	14	65	21	-7	11	52	37	-26
North West	-26	24	58	18	+6	19	70	11	+8
Yorkshire & Trent	-8	25	56	18	+7	11	69	20	-9
Midland	-3	16	62	22	-6	19	59	22	-3
Eastern	+16	23	54	24	-1	20	48	31	-11
London	-3	26	51	22	+4	25	42	33	-8
Southern	+15	22	51	27	-5	29	57	17	+12
South West	+2	17	64	20	-3	22	56	15	+7
South Wales	+10	12	63	24	-12	9	53	38	-29

First Posted: 22 July 1998. Last Updated: 22 July 1998.