Employment Trends - 2nd Quarter 1999 1. Employment in the Second Quarter of 1999 As with the change in workload, so with that in employment, the overall result from the second quarter 1999 survey is a very narrow negative percentage balance, of -2 compared with -4 in the first one. This is not large enough for anyone to say with certainty that total numbers employed by all FMB survey respondents together, both their direct employees and those whom they are employing as sub-contractors, have fallen over the three months. However, a balance of -23 for the specialist contractors, after one of -22 last time, certainly points to a fall in that area, whereas that for all builders increased very slightly to +4. For the second quarter in succession, and despite the weakening of its result in respect of the change in workload, the strongest balance for change in employment in any region is found in the Southern Counties, whereas the Northern Counties and South Wales again occupy the bottom two places. In South Wales just over half say they were employing fewer people on their sites at the end as compared with the beginning of the second quarter. Besides the Southern Counties, the Eastern Counties also shows a result for employment that is a long way removed from its result for workload. Eastern Counties has the strongest positive balance for the change in workload, but a zero balance for employment. 44% of respondents in the region say they had more work, but only 16% report an increase in employment.
Table 7 - Change in Employment in the Last Quarter   1998 results 1999 1999 Q2   % balance, not weighted Q1 Weighted percentages   Q2 Q3 Q4 balance Higher Same Lower Balance Northern -5 +25 +10 -48 10 49 41 -31 North West +4 -9 -13 -19 14 59 27 -13 Yorkshire & Trent -3 -10 -12 0 20 64 16 +4 Midlands -8 +10 -8 -4 27 39 34 -7 Eastern +7 +4 -9 -19 16 68 16 0 London -3 +5 +11 +14 23 65 12 +11 Southern 0 -3 -20 +26 36 53 11 +25 South West +2 +33 -10 +10 17 61 22 -5 South Wales 0 +11 -15 -36 3 46 51 -48 All builders       +1 22 60 18 +4 All specialists       -22 14 49 37 -23 National -1 +6 -9 -4 20 58 22 -2
This result also is some way down compared with the level of expectations expressed at the end of the first quarter, which resulted in a balance of +11. The proportion saying they were employing more people, 20%, is nearly up to the 23% that expected an increase in jobs but, whereas just 12% had expected employment to fall, there are now 22% or respondents saying they have fewer people on their sites than at the start of the quarter. 2. Expected Employment in the Third Quarter of 1999 Looking ahead, the balance of percentages of respondents expecting employment to rise or fall in the third quarter of 1999 is +13, marginally stronger than that obtained at the end of the first quarter, with 24% expecting to have more people working on their sites. This may be recognised as being a stronger balance than that for the expected trend in workload, which is due to the balance of replies from specialist contractors. As noted earlier, they are showing a zero balance for the expected trend in workload in the July-September quarter, but have a +12 balance for the expected trend in employment, matching that for all builders.
Table 8 - Expected Change in Employment in the Next Quarter   1998 results 1999 1999 Q1   % balance, not weighted Q1 Weighted percentages   Q2 Q3 Q4 balance Higher Same Lower Balance Northern -6 +8 +11 +46 43 54 3 +40 North West +6 +9 0 -17 14 59 27 -13 Yorkshire & Trent +3 -4 -3 +37 22 63 15 +7 Midlands +5 +4 -11 -21 20 64 16 +4 Eastern +15 0 -9 +13 11 80 9 +2 London +12 +10 +4 +25 45 47 8 +37 Southern +4 -7 -3 +25 17 78 5 +12 South West +8 +7 +7 +5 27 57 16 +11 South Wales -6 +13 -25 -20 6 70 24 -18 All builders       +17 23 66 11 +12 All specialists       -7 27 58 15 +12 National +6 +2 -2 +11 24 65 11 +13
Around the regions, expected employment balances are mostly a little weaker than those for anticipated changes in workload. There is however one very clear exception to this, with London showing a +37 balance for expected employment in the third quarter, compared with one of +11 for workload. 45% of London firms taking part in the survey expect to take on more people, 11% higher than the figure for those expecting a rise in workload. There are also divergences in the Midlands and the Northern Counties, firms in the latter of these posting a relatively strong balance for expected employment, just as they did last time, despite now anticipating a decline in workload. First posted: 21 July 1999. Last modified: 20 January 2000.