Key Findings - 3rd Quarter 2000 The Federation of Master Builders third quarter state of trade survey in 2000 has found members in relatively buoyant mood, reporting a clear rise in workload and employment in the third quarter of the year, and looking forward to further increases in the months ahead. 45% of total respondents report an increase in workload in the July-September quarter, compared with 18% indicating a fall. The balance, +27, is the highest since the present survey methodology was introduced at the start of 1999, and points to a stronger improvement than was anticipated in the previous survey. The balance in favour of an increase in employment over the same period is not quite so large, but just over a third of all respondents report an increase in jobs. Looking ahead to October-December, with less daylight and an expectation of poorer weather, there is still a narrow balance of replies in favour of a further increase in workload, and a slightly larger one anticipating a rise in employment. A slightly longer-term view, into 2001, is provided by indications of the trend in enquiries regarding possible future work. Over 40% report more enquiries in the third quarter than the second, compared with 25% indicating a drop. A notable feature of the answers to all the questions on workload, employment and enquiries is the improvement in trends indicated by specialist contractors, the experience of which had lagged that of builders in 1999 and the first half of 2000. Repair, maintenance and improvement of private housing again shows up as the most buoyant market for FMB members, and social housing new build the weakest. RM&I of social housing, by comparison, appears to have picked up in the third quarter, in respect of both actual and prospective workload. Analysis of results by region is now on the basis of standard regions, respondents being asked to indicate in which standard region they mainly operate. On this basis, only firms in the West Midlands and Wales appear not to have experienced the upwards trend in activity in the third quarter. Expectations are more mixed. Only in Wales is there a relatively firm expectation of a downwards trend, attributed to a reducing flow of home improvement grants, but firms in some other regions, including London, the South East and the South West, anticipate a comparatively flat trend in the near term. However, in the last two of these, good results for enquiries suggest a resumption of growth later on. Although activity has increased, the survey provides no evidence of any further tightening of the labour market for skilled construction workers. However, at 65% the proportion of respondents reporting difficulty obtaining skilled labour remains a concern. FMB survey respondents continue to report that, since the introduction of the Construction Industry Scheme, workers that formerly offered their services as sub-contractors are now working direct to the customer in the domestic sector, for cash in hand payment. The resulting increased distortion of competition against VAT-registered firms adds to their desire for a reduction in the rate of VAT on housing repair, maintenance and improvement. First posted: 25 October 2000. Last modified: 25 October 2000.