Employment Trends - 3rd Quarter 2001 1. Employment in the Third Quarter of 2001 The third quarter survey also shows a continuing rise in the workforce of small and medium-sized building firms, but the trend is clearly below that in workload, indicating that a significant part of the increase in output must have been achieved by working longer hours, as is quite customary in the Summer months. Just a quarter of respondents report a rise in employment, only half the proportion indicating that their workload has risen, whilst the proportion saying they are employing fewer people is 16%, which is the same as that indicating a fall in workload (see Table 1). As a result, the overall balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies is cut this time to +8 for England and Wales, which is the lowest figure since the second quarter of last year, and +9 for the UK. The result for specialist contractors is weaker than that for builders, by virtue of a higher percentage indicating a fall in employment.
Table 7 - Change in Employment in the Last Quarter   2000 2001 Third Quarter 2001   wtd % balance wtd % balance Weighted percentage   Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Higher Same Lower Balance North -7 -10 +21 +21 15 54 31 -16 Yorks & Humber +50 +50 -6 +5 18 63 19 -1 East Midlands +53 +9 +27 -14 46 52 2 +44 East Anglia 0 -11 +11 +26 30 69 1 +29 London +19 +14 0 +42 26 48 26 0 South East +10 +14 +5 -5 15 72 13 +2 South West +25 +3 +8 -2 23 54 23 0 West Midlands -3 +16 +7 +17 24 52 24 0 North West +11 +12 +16 +48 38 47 15 +23 Wales +22 +10 +34 +42 21 79 0 +21 Scotland -14 +27 64 9 27 +37 N Ireland -54 +6 35 65 0 +35 All builders +17 +13 +9 +14 25 59 16 +9 All specialists +29 +17 +6 +22 25 54 21 +4 England/Wales +19 +14 +11 +15 24 60 16 +8 UK +9 +16 25 59 16 +9
The results for the outcome in respect of employment are almost all weaker than the expectations regarding the trend in employment in the coming quarter that were expressed in the last survey, the only exceptions being those for the East Midlands, with a stronger positive trend than had been anticipated, and the South West, with a zero balance against the earlier expectation of a fall in employment. The proportions of firms now reporting a rise in employment in the third quarter are broadly as predicted, but those indicating a fall are higher than expected. Mention should also be made of the positive balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies from respondents in Wales, despite their indicating a fall in workload. 2. Expected Employment in the Fourth Quarter of 2001 Looking ahead over the next three months, the rise in total employment is expected to continue, albeit with the proportion anticipating that there will be more jobs slipping from over a quarter last time to under a fifth in this survey. At the same time the proportion expecting employment to fall is increased, principally among specialist contractors, but only to 11%-12% overall, which is just 3-4 points more than in the second quarter survey.
Table 8 - Expected Change in Employment in the Next Quarter   2000 2001 Third Quarter 2001   wtd % balance wtd % balance Weighted percentage   Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Higher Same Lower Balance North +15 +4 +16 -4 6 80 14 -8 Yorks & Humber +7 +16 +13 +15 8 84 8 0 East Midlands +24 -1 -5 +12 20 65 15 +5 East Anglia +11 -9 +4 +37 2 79 19 -17 London +15 +2 +27 +27 10 68 22 -12 South East +12 +14 +37 +11 20 73 7 +13 South West +3 +15 +22 -13 22 73 5 +17 West Midlands +16 +16 +19 +29 29 66 5 +24 North West +37 -17 +28 +47 13 62 25 -12 Wales -6 +27 +20 +58 23 62 15 +8 Scotland +25 +39 27 73 0 +27 N Ireland -49 +59 17 83 0 +17 All builders +12 +10 +18 +19 18 73 9 +9 All specialists +16 +8 +31 +18 16 66 18 -2 England/Wales +13 +9 +22 +18 17 71 12 +5 UK +21 +19 18 71 11 +7
Whereas overall there is a reasonable fit between the expectations expressed for the changes in employment and in workload, this is certainly not the case in all regions. On the one hand, respondents operating principally in East Anglia and in London are clearly anticipating a rise in workload but predicting a fall in employment, whereas those in the South East, South West and Wales - and possibly in Northern Ireland - are looking forward to a stronger trend in employment than in workload. First posted: 31 October 2001. Last modified: 1 November 2001.