Employment Trends - 3rd Quarter 1999 1. Employment in the Third Quarter of 1999 The overall result for the change in employment of labour in the last quarter - adding together both direct employment and use of sub-contractors - is very similar to that for the change in workload. The weighted percentage balance of those builders reporting higher and lower employment is +20, the same as for workload, but the balance for employment by specialist contractors, at -24, is weaker than that for workload, and restricts the overall balance for jobs to +12 compared to +14 for the level of activity.
Table 7 - Change in Employment in the Last Quarter
Table 7 - Change in Employment in the Last Quarter   1998 1999 Third Quarter 1999   wtd % balance wtd % balance Weighted percentage   Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Higher Same Lower Balance Northern -5 +25 +10 -48 10 49 41 -31 North West +4 -9 -13 -19 14 59 27 -13 Yorkshire & Trent -3 -10 -12 0 20 64 16 +4 Midlands -8 +10 -8 -4 27 39 34 -7 Eastern +7 +4 -9 -19 16 68 16 0 London -3 +5 +11 +14 23 65 12 +11 Southern 0 -3 -20 +26 36 53 11 +25 South West +2 +33 -10 +10 17 61 22 -5 South Wales 0 +11 -15 -36 3 46 51 -48 All builders       +1 22 60 18 +4 All specialists       -22 14 49 37 -23 National -1 +6 -9 -4 20 58 22 -2
Whilst these 'national' results are very close for the two questions, those for some of the regions show more variation. The North West and Southern Counties have stronger balances for employment than workload, but for the Eastern Counties, which turned in a +36 balance for the change in activity, that for jobs is only +4. In this region only 24% said that they employed more people, which is one of the lowest regional figures. As with workload, the Midlands still shows a slight negative balance, whilst the figures for South Wales indicate a pronounced fall in jobs as well as in building activity in that region.
It should be recalled, however, that the Eastern Counties out-turn balance for employment is very close to that of expectations in that region at the end of the second quarter, though in the event the percentages reporting change, both up and down, were somewhat higher than anticipated. In most other regions the balances of expected and actual changes in employment were not far apart. However, the Northern Counties clearly had less growth in jobs than firms in the region had anticipated, and so did the London Region; but in the North West the difference was very clearly the other way. 2. Expected Employment in the Fourth Quarter of 1999 As for expectations of the trend in jobs in the final quarter of 1999, results are for the most part a little stronger than those for expected workload. Overall there is a zero balance, with a slight plus from the builders and a -4 balance from the specialists, the latter figure being 11 points better than that from the question on the expected change in workload.
However, the principal difference between the two sets of answers is that much higher proportions of firms expect employment levels to remain the same than are looking forward to no change in workload. Amongst all respondents, 72% expect no change in employment, compared with the figure of 45% given earlier (Table 4) for the anticipated movement in workload.
Comparing the results from region to region, the spread of percentage balances is very much narrower than last time, with nothing stronger than +13 from the Northern Counties, nor anything weaker than -15 from the Midlands. This last result is well down on that obtained in the second quarter survey, as also are those for the Southern Counties, where the balance is negative this time, and London Region.
Table 8 - Expected Change in Employment in the Next Quarter
1998 1999 Third Quarter 1999   wtd % balance wtd % balance Weighted percentage   Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Higher Same Lower Balance Northern -6 +8 +11 +46 43 54 3 +40 North West +6 +9 0 -17 14 59 27 -13 Yorkshire & Trent +3 -4 -3 +37 22 63 15 +7 Midlands +5 +4 -11 -21 20 64 16 +4 Eastern +15 0 -9 +13 11 80 9 +2 London +12 +10 +4 +25 45 47 8 +37 Southern +4 -7 -3 +25 17 78 5 +12 South West +8 +7 +7 +5 27 57 16 +11 South Wales -6 +13 -25 -20 6 70 24 -18 All builders       +17 23 66 11 +12 All specialists       -7 27 58 15 +12 National +6 +2 -2 +11 24 65 11 +13
The small positive balance for the change in employment expected in South Wales is a somewhat erratic result for that region, when compared with its balance for enquiries, but it is broadly in line with the trend in workload in the final three months of the year anticipated by respondents in that region. First posted: 19 October 1999. Last modified: 21 January 2000.