4th Quarter 2000 - Key Findings The Federation of Master Builders final state of trade survey in 2000 has found indications of further increases in building workload and employment, ahead of the expectations expressed in the third quarter survey. Overall, 46% of respondents report a rise in workload, and 27% say there has been an increase in employment, compared with figures of 18% and 12% respectively indicating a downturn in activity and in jobs. There is evidence of a continuing relatively strong trend in repair, maintenance and improvement of private housing, but the positive balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies for the change in workload in that sector is on this occasion matched by those for RM&I of social housing, commercial work, and repair and maintenance of non-residential buildings for private sector clients. Only firms operating principally in East Anglia indicate a marked divergence from the overall trend in respect of the change in both workload and employment. Looking ahead, there are narrow positive balances of respondents expecting both workload and employment to rise in the first quarter of 2001. Bearing in mind the normal seasonal variation in building activity between the fourth and first quarters, this is an unusually strong result, which appears to be dictated principally by growing confidence that promised increased public spending is now feeding through into increased workload for public sector clients. There are, however, three regions - the North, East Anglia, and the North West - where firms anticipate a fall in activity in the next three months, and in the last two of these, and in the East Midlands, it is expected that there may be a fall in jobs. Looking slightly further ahead, over 40% of respondents report a rise in enquiries regarding possible future work, compared with 25% indicating a decline. The balance of these figures is the same as that recorded in the third quarter survey, and well ahead of the fourth quarter 1999 result. Although trends in workload and employment remain positive, FMB survey respondents are not indicating any further tightening of the labour market situation for skilled construction workers. There is a very slight rise in the proportion indicating difficulty in obtaining the services of carpenters and joiners, that remains the skill in respect of which there are the strongest indications of a shortage, but figures for other skills, most notably plasterers, appear to have eased a little since the third quarter. It is particularly noticeable in this survey that there is no close correspondence of the trend in work and the labour market situation in different regions. For example, firms operating mainly in the London area show the strongest trend in workload, but relatively less difficulty than before in obtaining skilled labour. Effects of the Construction Industry Scheme for the taxation of sub-contractors - on the availability of sub-contractors, the extent of 'cash-in-hand' competition, and the burden of compliance with legislation and regulation - are again the main cause of concerns expressed in written-in comments. First posted: 9 January 2001. Last modified: 10 January 2001.