4th Quarter 2001 - Employment Trends Employment in the Fourth Quarter of 2001 Although replies to the first survey question, regarding the change in workload in the fourth quarter of 2001 compared with the second, indicate a clear further increase in total construction workload of small and medium-sized building firms taking part in the FMB survey, their replies to the question about the change in employment point to only a small rise in their total workforce. For the country as a whole, and for both builders and specialist contractors, the proportion reporting no change in numbers employed is close to two thirds. For the builders the 'higher' proportion is still just ahead of the 'lower' one, but the result for all specialists is negative. As the builders account for three quarters of the total response this time, the overall result of the question is still narrowly positive. One has to go back to the first quarter of 2000 to find a weaker set of results for this question. As may be seen in Table 7, several of the regional results are different from those obtained from the question on the change in workload. The most striking difference is in the North West of England, where only 2% report a rise in numbers employed, although 41% say their total construction workload rose in the fourth quarter. For the South West also the result is much weaker for employment than for workload, but for Yorkshire & Humberside, and Wales, it is the employment balance that is stronger. Exactly half of all respondents from Wales report an increase in employment, which is 16 percentage points more than the proportion saying their workload was higher.
Table 7 - Change in Employment in the Last Quarter   2000 2001 Fourth Quarter 2001   Weighted % balance Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Higher Same Lower Balance North -10 +21 +21 -16 21 77 1 +20 Yorks & Humber +50 -6 +5 -1 37 51 12 +25 East Midlands +9 +27 -14 +44 8 69 23 -15 East Anglia -11 +11 +26 +29 10 86 4 +6 London +14 0 +42 0 26 59 15 +11 South East +14 +5 -5 +2 12 73 15 -3 South West +3 +8 -2 0 15 67 18 -3 West Midlands +16 +7 +17 0 10 80 10 0 North West +12 +16 +48 +23 2 70 28 -26 Wales +10 +34 +42 +21 50 36 14 +36 Scotland -14 +27 +37 12 46 42 -30 Northern Ireland -54 +6 +35 All builders +13 +9 +14 +9 18 66 16 +2 All specialists +17 +6 +22 +4 12 69 19 -7 England & Wales +14 +11 +15 +8 17 68 15 +2 UK +9 +16 +9 17 67 16 +1
In the South East there is again a divergence of results by segment, but on this occasion it is the Kent, Surrey and Sussex segment that is the only one to show a positive result, with only 2% of those operating principally in these three counties reporting a drop in employment although 32% say their workload was reduced. Expected Employment in the First Quarter of 2001 Looking forward to the coming three months, three quarters of all respondents expect no change in their workforces. Of the remainder, 11% look forward to taking on more personnel, whilst 14% anticipate a reduction. The resulting weighted percentage balance of all replies, -3, is the first negative result from this question since the weighting of replies by size of firm was introduced in 1999, the previous weakest being the zero balance recorded in the third quarter 1999 survey. The balance is negative both for all builders, by the narrowest possible margin, and for all specialist contractors, by a wider one. As shows clearly in Table 8, there is considerable variation of results by region, with four positive and seven negative balances. The strongest result is that for firms operating principally in London, a third of which anticipate taking on more personnel, almost the same proportion as expect their workload to increase. In both Wales and Scotland over a fifth are looking forward to expanding their workforces, whilst only single figure percentages anticipate decline. The result for the North is remarkable in that only one firm, equivalent to just 1% of the total response from firms operating principally in that region, expects its workforce to change in the first three months of 2002, and it anticipates an increase.
Table 8 - Expected Change in Employment in the Next Quarter   2000 2001 Fourth Quarter 2001   Weighted % balance Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Higher Same Lower Balance North +4 +16 -4 -8 1 99 0 +1 Yorks & Humber +16 +13 +15 0 9 74 17 -8 East Midlands -1 -5 +12 +5 8 60 32 -24 East Anglia -9 +4 +37 -17 7 71 22 -15 London +2 +27 +27 -12 33 62 5 +28 South East +14 +37 +11 +13 11 75 14 -3 South West +15 +22 -13 +17 12 75 13 -1 West Midlands +16 +19 +29 +24 3 78 19 -16 North West -17 +28 +47 -12 3 84 13 -10 Wales +27 +20 +58 +8 21 72 7 +14 Scotland +25 +39 +27 21 75 4 +17 Northern Ireland -49 +59 +17 All builders +10 +18 +19 +9 13 73 14 -1 All specialists +8 +31 +18 -2 8 78 14 -6 England & Wales +9 +22 +18 +5 11 75 14 -3 UK +21 +19 +7 11 75 14 -3
At the other extreme, almost a third of respondents from the East Midlands expect to shed labour, and there is also a weak result from the West Midlands. East Anglia and the North West also show double-digit negative balances, whilst there are smaller ones in Yorkshire & Humberside, the South West and - again despite a positive result for Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire - the South East.
First posted: 1 February 2002. Last modified: 4 February 2002.