4th Quarter 2001 - Key Findings The FMB's final state of trade survey in 2001 has found evidence of a further increase in the total workload of small and medium-sized building firms, albeit more modest than since the second quarter of 2000, accompanied by a small rise in their total workforce. The picture is still patchy, however, between different regions, with the North of England and Wales showing up relatively strongly, after weak results last time, whilst both the East and West Midlands report a slowdown. Results for London remain positive, but those for the rest of the South East are weaker. The workload and employment results for the East and West Midlands coincide with firms in those regions expressing the highest levels of concern over the supply of skilled labour. It is possible, therefore, that the apparent slowdown in the Midlands is attributable to skills shortages rather than weakness of demand. Social housing new build shows up as the most buoyant sector this time, but relatively few respondents work in this sector. Amongst those in which higher proportions of firms are engaged, repair, maintenance and improvement of existing private housing again exhibits the strongest trend in the last quarter. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2002, amongst all FMB survey respondents there is an expectation of a slight decline in total construction workload, and a small reduction in their total workforce, but probably no more of a downturn than is commonly experienced in this quarter. Some reduction in workload is anticipated in all sectors except new build and refurbishment of non-residential buildings for public sector clients. By region, firms operating principally in London, the South West and Wales are the most optimistic about the outlook for the next three months, whilst those in the East Midlands are the most pessimistic. Looking slightly further ahead, there may be a more significant change in the findings of the question that asks whether firms are dealing with a higher, the same, or lower level of enquiries about future work than in the previous quarter. Although amongst builders the proportion reporting enquiries 'higher' is still narrowly ahead of the 'lower' one, the balance of replies from specialist contractors is so clearly negative as to make the overall result negative for the first time since the FMB survey was re-organised in its present form in 1999. The slowing of growth in employment in the fourth quarter, and expectation of a slight fall in the workforce in the first quarter of 2002, are accompanied by an easing of the overall level of concern over the availability of skilled personnel, to work either as direct employees or as sub-contractors. Despite this, concern over the supply of labour, and the recruitment and training of new entrants, again generates more written-in comments than any other topic. The materials supply situation remains relatively satisfactory, with not much more than one in ten firms reporting delays of more than two weeks for any material. First posted: 1 February 2002. Last modified: 4 February 2001.