4th Quarter 2002 - Enquiries There is another very marked contrast between the latest results and those of the fourth quarter 2001 survey in respect of the balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies to the question that asks how the level of enquiries regarding possible future work compared between the latest and the preceding quarter. A year ago the overall result was marginally negative, but this time it is clearly positive, with more than two out of every five respondents reporting an increase in enquiries, compared with around a quarter saying enquiries were lower in the October-December quarter. The latest results are almost the same between the builders and the specialist contractors.
Table 5 - Enquiries in the Last Quarter   2001 2002 Fourth Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted % balance Weighted percentage   Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Higher Same Lower Balance North East +18 -13 +30 +62 39 26 35 +4 Yorks & Humber -13 +5 +27 +5 26 47 27 -1 East Midlands -65 +41 +7 -10 38 29 33 +5 Eastern -6 +39 +17 +43 17 57 26 -9 London +12 +8 +10 +38 62 22 16 +46 South East -5 +25 +7 -9 44 26 30 +6 South West +8 +33 +25 +30 42 37 21 +21 West Midlands -25 +12 -25 +4 26 50 24 +2 North West +20 +25 +32 +57 58 30 12 +46 Wales +44 +44 +35 +41 76 8 16 +60 Scotland -25 +23 -16 -2 53 36 11 +42 Northern Ireland -7 +17 43 14 43 0 All builders +3 +21 +15 +20 42 34 24 +18 All specialists -17 +22 +11 +24 40 35 25 +15 UK -1 +22 +14 +21 42 34 24 +18
The pattern of results by region for the change in enquiries, set out in Table 5, looks quite similar to that in Table 1 for the change in workload in the latest quarter. On the other hand, it is quite a bit different from that in Table 3 for the expected change in workload in the coming three months. There are large positive balances of 'higher' and 'lower' replies received from firms working principally in London, the North West, and Wales, all of which regions had posted strong results for this question in the third quarter survey. Scotland provides a fourth strong result, after negative ones in the two preceding quarters. The South West has another relatively healthy result, although not as good a one as in any of the three preceding surveys in 2002. All the other regions show relatively small balances, two of which, for Yorkshire & The Humber and for the Eastern region, are slightly negative. The Eastern result is well down on that in the third quarter survey, as also is that for the North East. As shown in Table 6 on the following page, the results by type of work are relatively strongest for both new build and RM&I of private housing, with one third reporting a rise in enquiries relating to new build, and a slightly greater 'higher' proportion for enquiries about RM&I work. By comparison the 'higher' proportions for enquiries relating to other types of work are all around one fifth. The highest of them is 24% for R&M of non-residential buildings for private sector clients, for which the weighted percentage balance of 'higher' and 'lower' replies is +7, in line with the results of the preceding three surveys. For R&M of non-residential public buildings, such as schools and NHS facilities, there is the narrowest possible positive balance, but it is the first positive one for this type of work for more than a year.
Table 6 - Enquiries in the Last Quarter, by Type of Work   2001 2002 Fourth Quarter 2002   Weighted % balance Weighted % balance Weighted percentages   Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Higher Same Lower Balance Housing:                 Private new -7 +12 0 +9 33 52 15 +18 Private RM&I -3 +21 +21 +21 36 47 17 +19 Social new -15 -3 -24 -3 19 53 28 -9 Social RM&I -1 +2 -5 +1 18 57 25 -7 Non-Residential:                 Public new build -9 +8 +2 -2 19 53 28 -9 Public R&M -7 0 -10 -1 21 59 20 +1 Industrial -21 -3 +4 -1 16 61 23 -7 Commercial -8 +7 +9 +14 22 50 28 -6 Private R&M -18 +5 +7 +8 24 59 17 +7
Relatively the largest change from the third quarter results is a 20-point downwards swing in the balance for enquiries relating to possible future work on commercial buildings. The latest balance under this heading, -6, is the poorest for a year, whilst one has to go back further than that to find a worse result for enquiries relating to RM&I of existing social housing than the latest one of -7. First posted: 28 January 2003. Last modified: 29 January 2003.