4th Quarter 2002 - Labour Market
There is no doubt, given written-in comments, that some firms' answers to the question about the expected change in employment also are influenced by their judgement of the state of the labour market for construction operatives, which remains relatively tight except in Northern Ireland.
Table 9 on the following page has been amended to include for the first time the overall and regional proportions of replies indicating that firms have experienced problems either recruiting direct employees or hiring trades to work as sub-contractors (or both). The overall figure this time is 65%, which is four percentage points less than in the third quarter survey, including 46% saying they have encountered difficulty finding direct employees and 48% reporting problems hiring sub-contractors. Both these latter figures also are a little lower than last time.
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Apart from Northern Ireland, for which the result may not be entirely reliable given the relatively low response, there is no region for which the overall proportion reporting 'skill shortages' is less than one half, whilst for four English regions the figure is 70% or more. London has the highest figure, and is one of three regions, the others being Yorkshire & The Humber and the South West, where the overall proportion is a little higher than it was last time.
Bricklayers, carpenters and joiners, plasterers, and plumbers and heating and ventilation engineers, remain the only four trades for which the proportions reporting difficulty either recruiting direct employees or hiring sub-contractors - or, as on this occasion, both - are in excess of 10% for the country as a whole. As indicated in Table 9, the 'national' figures for all these trades are relatively very little different from those recorded last time but, as is quite usual, some of the regional figures for different trades are changed more considerably.
The last two commentaries reported an increase in the proportion indicating difficulty obtaining the services of roofers, which for the UK as a whole had risen above 10% for direct employment in the second quarter survey, and for sub-contractors last time. In the fourth quarter survey the 'national' figures for both direct and indirect employment of roofers have both slipped back below 10%, to 6% and 7% respectively, although one or other of them is above that figure in five regions, the highest being in the North West.
By comparison, the corresponding 'national' figures for painters have increased again, to 8% for direct employment and 9% for sub-contractors. One or other of the two figures is over 10% in five regions, including London from where as many as 23% of respondents report difficulty finding painters to work as direct employees.
It might be thought that results for the difficulty of recruitment of these two trades could be somewhat distorted by changes in numbers of roofing and painting and decorating contractors taking part in the survey. This has been checked in respect of the third and fourth quarter 2002 surveys, between which the proportions for roofers were reduced and those for painters increased for both builders and specialists.
First posted: 28 January 2003. Last modified: 29 January 2003.
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