4th Quarter 1999 - Employment Trends
Employment in the Second Quarter of 1999
The overall trend in employment through the last quarter of 1999 suggested by the results of the survey, as shown in Table 7, is clearly stronger than the trend in workload indicated Table 1. When the two Tables are compared, however, what is immediately obvious is the similarity of the results for workload and employment calculated from the responses from all builders, whereas there is a very marked difference in the results for the specialist contractors.
The builders have an employment balance of +7 to set against one of +10 for workload. The specialist contractors have a -7 balance for the change in workload, but one of +26 for the change in employment. There is relatively little difference in the proportions of the specialists reporting increases in workload and increases in employment, but only 8% say they employed fewer people, compared with 32% saying they had seen a drop in work.
There is no obvious explanation for this apparent inconsistency in the indications provided by the specialist contractors in this survey. However, if one looks back to last time one may see that they were then looking forward to some divergence of trends in workload and in workforce numbers.
|
|
|
Then there were 38% of specialists anticipating that their workload would fall in the fourth quarter of the year, but only 11% expecting to shed labour. The corresponding outturn results of 32% and 8% are not dissimilar. Where there is a difference is in the proportions expecting and reporting increases. Last time there were 23% looking for a rise in workload, but only 7% expecting to increase employment, compared with which the outturn proportions this time are 25% and 34% respectively. It is the last of these figures that is the one that is 'out of step'.
The feature to note in Table 7 is that, everywhere except in Southern Counties there are more than half the respondents to the survey saying that their workforces did not change through the last quarter of the year, and in three regions the proportion was over 70%. It is this aspect of the employment findings that reinforces most strongly the impression obtained earlier, from the results for workload, that the final three months of 1999 was a period of very little change in the level of activity of FMB survey respondents.
Expected Employment in the First Quarter of 2000
Looking ahead, the balance of percentages of respondents expecting employment to rise or fall in the first quarter of 2000 is +3, which is a stronger result than that for the expected change in workload. In this instance, the division of expectations regarding activity and employment is evident in the replies from both builders and specialist contractors, and from most regions.
London Region and Yorkshire & Trent, identified earlier as the only two regions where survey respondents are looking forward to an increase in work in the first three months of 2000, are also looking for a rise in employment; but there are also positive percentage balances for the expected change in employment in Northern Counties, Midlands, Eastern Counties and South West, all of which have negative balances for the expected change in workload.
Looking at Table 8, however, the strongest impression is created by the high percentages replying that they are not anticipating any change in the size of their workforces in the first quarter. This is the expectation of seven out of ten overall, and as many as eight out of ten in four of the nine FMB regions.
These are higher proportions than were shown earlier as expecting no change in workload, which suggests that many of those who anticipate that their workload will be different are not expecting it to change by much.
|
|
